History of The Atmosphere
(and how Dr. Edward Teller became the father of
global warming as well as the hydrogen bomb)

By Jim Goodridge, former California State Climatologist
with research links by Anthony Watts

A broad perspective is needed to see the landmark events in atmospheric chemistry. One was offered by Stephen Jay Gould: ”The textbooks of my youth designated our current epoch as the Age of Man. Current linguistic preferences favor an Age of Mammals. More generous people with fewer parochial intentions, often choose to honor a truly dominate multicellular group of more than a million described species (compared with a paltry 400 for mammals): the Age if Insects. But these proposals represent little more than multicellular prejudice. We are now, as our planet has been for 3.5 billion years, in an Age of Bacteria.”

1.      Indications are that our Earth was formed from dust of supernova explosions about 4.55 billion years ago. The oceans formed about 150 million years later. When the atmosphere of the early earth was formed is uncertain. Indications are it contained very little oxygen but probably nitrogen, carbon dioxide and some water and methane as well as perhaps some ammonia and hydrogen. Any oxygen in the early atmosphere was soon bound up with calcium to form limestone or with other material such as iron.

2.      The history of the gas mixture of the atmosphere is tied to the biosphere and hence to the origin of life on our planet. The earliest inhabitants of earth from about 3.8 billion years ago were probably thermophylic organisms that do not use atmospheric oxygen, perhaps like those living today around submarine volcanic vents deep in the oceans.

3.      The development of life on our Planet could have evolved as an exceedingly un-likely event of ordinary chemical process according to Thomas Gold. Gold suggested that photosynthesis, the primary energy for surface life on Earth’s surface, was too fragile to have been here at the beginning of life. Gold suggests that empirical evidence strongly support a sub surface origin of life that was energized by hydrocarbons that were a component of the material that formed the original earth and got their oxygen from rocks.

4.      The development of photosynthesis resulted in the use of water and carbon dioxide to form carbohydrates and free atmospheric oxygen. This probably started about 2.8 billion years ago. Oxygen was toxic to earlier life forms that either adapted or perished. Many of those early forms however adopted and are still with us. They are the anaerobic organisms that surround us. Some of them live in our intestines helping us digest carbohydrates while they produce methane gas. Some live in the intestines of cows to help them digest cellulose into digestible carbohydrates and methane gas.

5.      The present highly oxidizing atmosphere could not have developed without photosynthesis. Atmospheric oxygen is clearly a product of a life process. Without photosynthesis our planet would be like Venus, a hot lifeless place where heat is trapped under a blanket of green house gases like CO2.

6.      Carbon dioxide (CO2) availability is one of the main factors limiting plant growth on our planet. Plant growth is in direct response to CO2 availability.

7.      Colonization of our land surface by plants began in earnest in the Devonian period about 400 million years ago. This may have been in response to the start of nitrogen fixing by microorganisms.

8.      The atmosphere contains 7 tons of nitrogen per square yard of surface area, but nearly all is tightly bound as a gas that is virtually inert. Microorganisms in the soil recycle most of the nitrogen that is available for plant growth.

9.      Nitrogen is critical for protein development and its availability is another plant growth limitation. This limitation was modified for our planet when Fritz Haber patented a procedure for making ammonia from atmospheric nitrogen in 1909. He received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry ten years latter. It is estimated that one third of the human population is now feed from nitrogen fixed by the Haber process. The human population explosion started in earnest following WWII with the large-scale application of artificial ammonia based fertilizer.

10.  Nitrogen in its available form has now reached unprecedented high levels on our planet. Newborn children are especially sensitive to nitrates in drinking water. These nitrates have rapidly increased since 1950 as more artificial fertilizers were applied to crops. The effect of increased available nitrogen is now modifying earth’s biota as seen in plants like algae blooms.

11.  The ending of World War II left a void in employment for the munitions makers. There was a big search for peaceful uses of parts of the war machine. The newly discovered atomic energy was one of those in need of a peacetime application. Problems calling for solution were everywhere. One of the big ones was air pollution. Smog like that in the Los Angeles basin was stifling. It was apparent that fossil fuel burning in cars and power plants was a cause.  Some went so far as to suggest that reliance on atomic energy would solve the smog problem. It was the dream of many in 1948 that electricity would be so cheep that it would not have to be metered as soon nuclear power was developed. Electricity sold for about $0.006 per kilowatt-hour at the time.

12.  Edward Teller expressed that there was some urgency in developing applied nuclear power. He suggested that the atmospheric CO2 build up could result in a runaway greenhouse effect similar to the planet Venus if we did not stop burning fossil fuels. Venus surface temperatures are hundreds of degrees and life as we know it could not exist there.

13.  Stephen Schneider picked up Teller’s theme and said that if this run-away greenhouse heating was threatening human existence then we must stop adding CO2 to our atmosphere. This is how a worst-case scenario became the code some would have us live by today.

14.  Teller was the national hero who gave us the hydrogen bomb. A problem with Tellers great talent was that neither he nor Stephan Schneider were apparently well versed in biology. Even if they were in the early 1950’s there was no common understanding of Earth’s system of converting CO2 to biomass by chlorophyll. The big breakthrough in biological science did not occur until Watson and Crick discovered the DNA code in 1952. Even then it took the war on cancer, the war on AIDS and the genome project to develop an adequate understanding of biologic systems needed to address the CO2 problem.

15.  Our understanding of the role of chlorophyll the world’s history was further clarified with the work of Carl Woese and his analysis of RNA sequences in various life forms. This happened in the 1960’s. He found that oxygen-generating organisms started absorbing atmospheric CO2 about two billion years ago. Nitrogen fixing bacteria developed about 1 billion years later.  Since that time control of atmospheric CO2 balance has been chlorophyll’s function.

16.  Sherwood Idso clearly showed us, in a 1982 book “Carbon Dioxide: Friend of Foe?” that CO2 was a limiting factor in biomass growth. Even now the Idso family web-site at  http://www.co2science.org   is an outstanding source of wisdom on carbon dioxide and it’s influence in promoting plant growth.

17.  The last half-century has see a rise in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Speculation on reasons for the increase include: a) the increased number of volcanoes reported in the last 200 years. True there are more people to report them. b) More solar energy may affect the solubility of CO2 in the oceans. c) Stress on world plant cover could be reducing the global chlorophyll supply available for absorbing CO2. d) Even more reasonable is the increased burning if fossil carbon based fuels. e) The CO2 rise could be related to increase biological activity due to increased use of artificial fertilizers.

18.   The place of animals on the tree of life is minor.  Man is not responsible for the worlds CO2 balance. Chlorphyll is. The accelerated rate of greening in northern latitudes is apparent, based on satellite-based observations.

19.  The 200-year-old warning of Robert Malthus regarding natural control of biologic systems by food availability or waste buildup is still valid.

20.  Mankind’s population explosion is perhaps responsible for denuding much of Earth’s pristine environment. With regard to the numbers of us, Plotkin reports: “The number of humans alive today alive today is greater than the total of all people who have ever lived in the past—and the rate of population growth continues to climb.”

21.  Our numbers are probably not responsible for the 0.2 watt per square meter of increase in the solar constant over the last 50 years. This is based on estimates for the last 500 years.

22.  Solar constant measurements have been made from outside of Earth’s atmosphere since 1978. The total solar energy was found to be highly correlated with the historic sunspot numbers. Sunspot numbers have been measured since 1700 and estimated back to 1500. The trend is definitely upward with the highest values being in the last 50 years.

23.  A possible affect of a 0.2 watt per square meter increase in the solar constant is an increase in the atmospheric circulation. Global circulation may effect the location of upwelling in the oceans. The Length of the Day observations show an increase of about one millisecond over the last century. If days are getting longer then the atmosphere must have a greater north-south wind component indicating fewer westerly winds. The increase in the solar constant is also reflected in the increased rate of tree ring growth in at 45 California sites with measurements since about 1500.

24.  Global warming was Edward Teller’s fantasy and the worst-case scenario of Stephan Schneider. It may have been rooted in thermally polluted urban air temperature records. A major and still unresolved problem is: where is it possible take the world’s temperature for the purpose of assessing long term trends. Our historic records were intended to measure temperatures where people live. They are of questionable representation of Earth’s real temperature. Most historic air temperature measurements have been made where cities later developed.

25.  Cities generate urban thermal pollution. Excess waste heat is the rule in cities. Luke Howard first studied urban-rural temperature differences in London in about 1810 as reported by Landsberg.

26.  Air temperatures a century ago were made over bare ground with only a natural grass cover. Now they are commonly taken over black top in the view-shed  of heated buildings and many are constantly exposed to night-time lighting.

27.  Atmospheric air temperatures have been taken from orbiting satellites since about 1978. These records are compiled and published by John Christy of the University of Alabama. These records do not reflect the same upward trend as the thermally polluted surface temperature records.

28.  Earth’s color has been monitored by orbiting satellites for a dozen years. The northern latitudes are greening in possibly in response to elevated CO2 levels or possibly to decreasing snow cover.

29.  For the last 55 years climate in California is reflects variations in sea surface temperatures (SST). SST variations are controlled by cold ocean water upwelling near shore. There is a short 3 to 6 year upwelling event that we call El Nino and a longer 10 to 25 year event that is called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (POD).

30.  For us living in coastal California the “Decadal Oscillation is” quite significant.  As an example during the 1975 to 1998 period the North Pacific experienced strong upwelling on the Asian Coast. This period was one of low sea levels in Japan with cold water extending eastward passed the International Date Line. On the California Coast sea levels were high, upwelling was suppressed and sea surface and land based air temperatures soared. This was a generally a period of abundant and variable rainfalls in Northern California.

31.  Since 1998 sea levels in Japan have risen, ours have declined. Up welling on our coast has increased and our temperatures and rainfalls have decreased. Rainfalls reflect the moisture holding capacity of air and decreases rapidly with decreased temperature. Therefore California’s climate has become colder and dryer.

32.  Ocean currents generally flow westward along the equator.  Ocean currents have general clockwise pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and a counter clockwise pattern in the Southern Hemisphere. The North Atlantic has the warm Gulf Stream flowing northerly up the North American East Coast and in the North Pacific has the cold Japan Current flows southerly on the West Coast. In the Atlantic the Gulf Stream splits and part of it flows North between Iceland and Norway to warm the Northern European Coast and keeps the Norway Coast free of ice even in the winter time. This relatively warm flow proceeds under the polar ice to cause melting and breakup of the polar ice cap.

33.  The return flow from the Arctic Ocean forms the East Greenland Current. This dense cold water return flow passes under the gulf Stream and cascades over the Straits of Denmark between Iceland and Greenland into the depths of the Atlantic. This cascade flows at a rate of about 10 times that of the Amazom River.  It then circulates back to the North Pacific as cold water at great depth beneath the surface.

34.  Cold water upwells in the North Pacific in response to winds. Off shore winds push the water back from land reducing sea levels and inducing upwelling of cold water. The oceans are in a delicate hydrostatic balance and easily up-well in response to a slight decrease in sea level caused by persistent wind forces.

35.  Atmospheric circulation is the key to where upwelling will occur. It is indexed for my studies by two parameters. A simplistic one for the North Pacific is the barometric pressure difference between San Francisco and Tokyo.  When Tokyo pressure is lower apparently winds blow off Siberia resulting in low sea levels that induce cold water upwelling on the Asian Coast.

36.  Another atmospheric circulation index is the variation in the Length Of Day (LOD). The length of the day is a function of the momentum of the world and its atmosphere jointly. The atmosphere weights about the same as a ball of lead 60 miles in diameter. When there is a large north-south component to atmospheric the Earth’s rotation rate will increase. With a general West to East circulation LOD variation decreases.

37.  An index of LOD extends back to about 1650. The average LOD variation is about 2 milli-seconds (.002) per day as our day length lengthens ever so slowly. The Naval Observatory carefully monitors LOD for navigation applications.

38.  The trends in LOD variation are being studied as index to SST and upwelling on our coast. LOD variation seems to change with the decadal oscillation scale. This is a current area of study.

39.  The problem of determining long term inter-yearly trends in rainfall is one that troubles water supply planners. It appears that global circulation indices will be a clue to trends in water supply.

Conclusions

1.       I think that we are in for at least a dozen years of colder and dryer weather that started in 1998 with the increase in upwelling on our coast.

2.       A concept of a “run-away green house heating” of our Planet is a case of severe environmental myopia based on a narrow view of history. What we are witnessing is a slight increase in Solar radiation resulting in shifting regional patterns of sea water upwelling, as well as an infestation of non-representative temperature records. There seems in CO2 due to an increase in mined petroleum fuel burning. Chlorophyll will continue as Earth’s carbon dioxide regulator as it has been for several billion years.  God save our plants.